Starting Point

Starting Point

Summary

This study examines how artificial intelligence (AI) investments influence entrepreneurial performance, specifically firm revenue growth, across 1,479 publicly listed firms in 26 European Union countries between 2012 and 2023. The research addresses a gap in the literature by moving beyond assumed linear relationships between AI adoption and performance, instead testing for non-linear and interaction effects that better reflect the real-world complexity of technology adoption.

Using an unbalanced panel dataset and the Cameron et al. (2011) multi-way clustering estimation technique, the authors controlled for firm-specific factors, macroeconomic conditions, and potential endogeneity through instrumental variable regression. AI investment was proxied by country-level venture capital investment in AI from the OECD AI Policy Observatory, and entrepreneurial performance was measured as changes in year-over-year revenue growth.

The central finding is a U-shaped relationship between AI investment and revenue growth: firms initially experience performance declines due to high implementation costs, skill gaps, and integration challenges, but those that persist beyond a threshold of approximately USD 11.3 million in AI-related venture funding begin to realise significant long-term gains. Crucially, the study also finds that combining AI investment with active research and development (R&D) activity produces a strong positive interaction effect, meaning that AI and R&D together drive greater entrepreneurial outcomes than either does independently.

The practical significance is substantial for both managers and policymakers. Managers are advised to adopt phased AI investment strategies and embed AI within existing R&D pipelines to maximise returns. Policymakers are encouraged to provide transitional support such as tax incentives and innovation grants, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises, and to link digital adoption programmes with R&D funding frameworks like Horizon Europe. The study also finds that smaller firms tend to benefit more quickly from AI investments than larger firms, highlighting the importance of tailoring strategies to organisational context.

✦ AI-generated summary based on the source paper.

At a glance

Infographic summary of this paper

✦ AI-generated infographic based on the source paper.

Key learnings

AI investment follows a U-shaped performance curve

Firms initially experience revenue declines when adopting AI due to high upfront costs and integration challenges, but sustained investment beyond a critical threshold (~USD 11.3M in AI venture funding) yields significant long-term growth benefits.

Combine AI with R&D to unlock maximum value

AI investment alone is insufficient for competitive advantage. Firms that integrate AI with active R&D efforts generate complementary, mutually reinforcing effects that substantially improve entrepreneurial outcomes.

Expect and plan for a short-term performance dip

Early-stage AI adoption typically hinders revenue growth due to adjustment costs, skill mismatches, and learning inefficiencies. Leaders should plan financially and strategically for this transitional period rather than abandoning AI prematurely.

Small firms gain faster returns from AI investment

Smaller firms benefit more quickly from AI adoption and the AI-R&D synergy than larger organisations, likely due to greater agility and fewer bureaucratic layers. Larger firms must adapt their integration strategies to avoid diminishing returns.

AI acts as a dynamic capability, not a static asset

Consistent with Dynamic Capabilities Theory, AI enables firms to sense new opportunities, seize them strategically, and reconfigure processes over time. The value of AI develops through organisational learning and accumulation of complementary capabilities, not from ownership alone.

Policymakers should support the AI adoption transition

The short-term negative effect of AI investment justifies targeted policy interventions such as tax incentives, innovation grants, and co-financing schemes, particularly for SMEs. Linking digital adoption programmes to R&D funding under frameworks like Horizon Europe can amplify impact.

AI investment strategy must be patient and phased

Managers should adopt staged investment approaches, starting with pilot projects and scaling gradually, to manage early inefficiencies. Embedding AI within existing R&D pipelines accelerates product development and sustains long-term growth.

Context matters: firm size shapes AI effectiveness

The impact of AI on entrepreneurial outcomes is moderated by firm size. Organisations of different scales require distinct AI integration strategies, and one-size-fits-all approaches risk underutilising or misallocating AI resources.